At first blush, it seems utterly pointless to devote countless hours of research and writing to Major League Baseball’s slate of Opening Day outings — in terms of predicting straight-up winners — even during a truncated season of 60 games.
Yes, the 2020 campaign (37 percent of a normal 162-game season) will resemble more of a sprint than marathon. However, it still doesn’t make the results of this week’s 15 openers any less random.
A bad bounce here, an errant toss there … and everything changes.
Especially with home-field advantage being largely benign on a daily basis, since there will be no ticket-buying fans in the stands.
So, why did we concoct a numbers-based feeder system of prognosticating the 15 winners for Thursday (two games) and Friday (13 outings)?
Well, just like Lou Gossett Jr.’s hilarious and tough-as-nails character (Honey Roy Palmer — below) in the 1992 boxing/comedy classic, Diggstown, we’re a sucker for a good cash-grab opportunity.
As such, check out MLB and MasterCard’s cool promotion of paying out $100,000 to anyone who can accurately forecast the winners all 15 Opening Day clashes.
So, without further ado, here’s BATSBY Sports’ data-driven breakdown of all 15 matchups.
Using history as our guide (see data below) … in most cases, this week’s winning teams will require at least 5.5 runs on Opening Day; and the losers typically don’t surpass four runs.
MLB AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY BY YEAR: WINNING CLUB
2019 — 6.10 runs
2018 — 6.13 runs
2017 — 5.47
2016 — 6.53
2015 — 5.47
2014 — 5.60
2013 — 4.53
2012 — 4.40
2011 — 6.47
2010 — 7.67
CLEMONS: A 5-year analysis of each NL club’s run of 60-game starts
CLEMONS: 5-year breakdown of every AL team’s run of 60-game starts
MLB AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY BY YEAR: LOSING TEAM
2019 — 2.73 runs
2018 — 3.13 runs
2017 — 2.67
2016 — 2.60
2015 — 1.01
2014 — 2.13
2013 — 1.47
2012 — 2.13
2011 — 3.53
2010 — 3.33
JULY 23 MATCHUPS
YANKEES @ NATIONALS
YANKEES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 7-3
2019 ROAD RECORD: 46-35
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.08
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 12-8
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.3
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.4
GERRIT COLE — Last four season-launching starts: 22.2 innings … 3.98 ERA, 27/7 K-BB
NATIONALS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 6-4
2019 HOME RECORD: 50-31
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.68
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 14-6
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.5
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.1
MAX SCHERZER — Last four season-debut starts: 27.1 innings … 1.98 ERA, 40/8 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: NATIONALS
GIANTS @ DODGERS
GIANTS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 ROAD RECORD: 42-39
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.85
2019 RECORD VS. DODGERS: 7-12
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.6
JOHNNY CUETO — Last four season-opening starts: 24 innings … 1.88 ERA, 17/3 K-BB
DODGERS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 8-2
2019 HOME RECORD: 59-22
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.85
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 6.6
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.7
CODY BELLINGER — .317 batting, .947 OPS against the Giants last year
CLAYTON KERSHAW — Last four season-debut starts: 27 innings … 1.33 ERA, 30/4 K-BB
IT’S ALSO WORTH NOTING: On Opening Day, dating back to 2016, the Dodgers have notched double-digit runs three times.
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: DODGERS
JULY 24 MATCHUPS
TIGERS @ REDS
TIGERS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 8-2
2019 ROAD RECORD: 25-55
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.94
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 5-15
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.0
MATTHEW BOYD — Last four season-launching outings: 18 innings … 4.50 ERA, 15/8 K-BB
REDS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 HOME RECORD: 41-40
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.28
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 9-11
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.7
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.4
SONNY GRAY — Last four season-debut starts: 19.2 innings … 3.67 ERA, 19/13 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: TIGERS
BRAVES @ METS
BRAVES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 ROAD RECORD: 47-34
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.19
2019 RECORD VS. METS: 11-8
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.9
MIKE SOROKA — Last two season-opening starts: 11 innings … 1.64 ERA, 11/3 K-BB
METS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 7-3
2019 HOME RECORD: 48-33
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.24
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.1
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.8
PETE ALONSO — Seven homers, 20 RBI, 1.115 OPS versus Braves last year
JACOB deGROM — Last four season-debut starts: 23.2 innings … 0.76 ERA, 29/3 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: METS
BLUE JAYS @ RAYS
BLUE JAYS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 4-6
2019 ROAD RECORD: 32-49
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.79
2019 RECORD VS. RAYS: 6-13
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.1
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.0
HYUN-JIN RYU — Last three season-debut starts: 14.1 innings … 3.78 ERA, 15/6 K-BB
RAYS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 HOME RECORD: 48-33
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.65
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.4
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.5
CHARLIE MORTON — Last three season-launching starts: 17 innings … 2.11 ERA, 18/6 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: RAYS
MARLINS @ PHILLIES
MARLINS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 2-8
2019 ROAD RECORD: 27-54
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.74
2019 RECORD VS. PHILLIES: 10-9
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.5
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.3
SANDY ALCANTARA — Last two season-opening starts: 13 innings … 0.69 ERA, 8/5 K-BB
PHILLIES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 6-4
2019 HOME RECORD: 45-36
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.53
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.7
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.1
BRYCE HARPER — .403 on-base, .958 OPS versus the Marlins last year
AARON NOLA — Last four season-debut starts: 24.1 innings … 1.85 ERA, 26/8 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: PHILLIES
ROYALS @ INDIANS
ROYALS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 3-7
2019 ROAD RECORD: 28-53
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.20
2019 RECORD VS. INDIANS: 7-12
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.6
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.0
DANNY DUFFY — Last three season-debut starts: 15 innings … 5.40 ERA, 14/8 K-BB
INDIANS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 3-7
2019 HOME RECORD: 49-32
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.76
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.1
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.6
FRANCISCO LINDOR — .392 batting, 1.126 OPS vs. the Royals last season
SHANE BIEBER — Career numbers versus the Royals: 29.1 innings … 3-0 record, 5.22 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 29/9 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: INDIANS
BREWERS @ CUBS
BREWERS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 4-6
2019 ROAD RECORD: 40-41
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.40
2019 RECORD VS. CUBS: 10-9
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.6
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.9
BRANDON WOODRUFF — Last thee season-debut outings: 13.1 innings … 2.03 ERA, 12/3 K-BB
CUBS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 4-6
2019 HOME RECORD: 51-30
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.10
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.4
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.1
JAVY BAEZ — Posted a middling slugging rate of .483 vs. MIL last year
KYLE HENDRICKS — Last four season-opening starts: 23 innings … 3.52 ERA, 20/8 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: CUBS
ORIOLES @ RED SOX
ORIOLES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 8-2
2019 ROAD RECORD: 29-52
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.59
2019 RECORD VS. RED SOX: 7-12
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.7
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.7
TOMMY MILONE — Last three season-opening outings: 12 innings … 7.00 ERA, 14/1 K-BB
RED SOX
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 HOME RECORD: 46-35
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.70
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.6
RAFAEL DEVERS — Four homers, 1.034 OPS vs. Orioles last year
NATHAN EOVALDI — 2019 numbers versus the Orioles: 7 innings … 10.29 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 4/7 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: RED SOX
ROCKIES @ RANGERS
ROCKIES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 6-4
2019 ROAD RECORD: 28-53
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.56
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 8-12
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.6
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.9
GERMAN MARQUEZ — Last three season-debut starts: 15 innings … 5.40 ERA, 13/10 K-BB
RANGERS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 4-6
2019 HOME RECORD: 45-36
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.06
2019 INTERLEAGUE RECORD: 9-11
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 6.7
LANCE LYNN — Last three season-debut starts: 15 innings … 8.40 ERA, 12/7 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: ROCKIES
TWINS @ WHITE SOX
TWINS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 2-8
2019 ROAD RECORD: 46-35
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.18
2019 RECORD VS. WHITE SOX: 13-6
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.6
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.5
JOSE BERRIOS — Last three season-opening starts: 24.1 innings … 0.37 ERA, 20/3 K-BB
WHITE SOX
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 HOME RECORD: 39-41
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.90
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.4
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.7
LUCAS GIOLITO — Last two season-debut starts: 12.2 innings … 3.57 ERA, 9/5 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: WHITE SOX
PIRATES @ CARDINALS
PIRATES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 ROAD RECORD: 34-47
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.18
2019 RECORD VS. CARDINALS: 5-14
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.4
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.8
JOE MUSGROVE — Last three season-opening outings: 14 innings … 1.29 ERA, 10/3 K-BB
CARDINALS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 5-5
2019 HOME RECORD: 50-31
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.80
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.7
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.9
JACK FLAHERTY — Last two season-debut starts: 9.1 innings … 4.84 ERA, 13/2 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: CARDINALS
MARINERS @ ASTROS
MARINERS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 8-2
2019 ROAD RECORD: 33-48
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.99
2019 RECORD VS. ASTROS: 1-18 (not a misprint)
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.3
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.4
MARCO GONZALES — Last four season-opening starts: 12.1 innings … 4.39 ERA, 6/1 K-BB
ASTROS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 7-3
2019 HOME RECORD: 60-21
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.66
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.2
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.4
JOSE ALTUVE — Four homers, .329 on-base rate vs. M’s last season
JUSTIN VERLANDER — Last four season-debut starts: 25.1 innings … 2.13 ERA, 29/7 K-BB
IT’S WORTH NOTING: The Astros have won their last seven openers, while allowing an absurdly low average of one run per game during this triumphant span.
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: ASTROS
DIAMONDBACKS @ PADRES
D-BACKS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 6-4
2019 ROAD RECORD: 41-40
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.25
2019 RECORD VS. PADRES: 11-8
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.3
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 5.2
MADISON BUMGARNER — Last four season-launching starts: 25 innings … 3.60 ERA, 29/6 K-BB
PADRES
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 3-7
2019 HOME RECORD: 36-45
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 4.60
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.5
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 6.3
CHRIS PADDACK — Last year’s season debut: 5 innings … 1.80 ERA, 7/1 K-BB
BATSBY SPORTS PICK: DIAMONDBACKS
ANGELS @ ATHLETICS
ANGELS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 4-6
2019 ROAD RECORD: 34-47
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 5.12
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 2.9
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 4.3
MIKE TROUT — Only .222 batting and .377 on-base versus the A’s last year
ANDREW HEANEY — Last two season-debut starts: 10 innings … 4.50 ERA, 15/2 K-BB
ATHLETICS
OPENING DAY RECORD SINCE 2010: 3-7
2019 HOME RECORD: 52-29
2019 BULLPEN ERA: 3.97
2019 RECORD VS. ATHLETICS: 13-6
AVERAGE RUNS SCORED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.4
AVERAGE RUNS ALLOWED ON OPENING DAY SINCE 2010: 3.6
FRANKIE MONTAS — Last two season-opening starts: 12 innings … 1.50 ERA, 13/2 K-BB