On Thursday, I put myself through a fun, but eminently stressful period of draft chaos, executing three simultaneous mock drafts (12 teams/PPR scoring) — while holding the No. 8 pick each time.
POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QB-STARTER RANKINGS
TOP 60 PPR TAILBACKS
TOP 75 PPR WIDE RECEIVERS
TOP 35 PPR TIGHT ENDS
TOP 160 PPR PLAYMAKERS
THE ANNUAL PPR SPECTACULAR
Adding to the cool absurdity of this annual exercise, we then stepped up the degree of difficulty with the following limitations:
a) I wouldn’t be allowed to peruse my updated cheat sheet during the draft … not that there’s much time for it anyway.
b) I wasn’t allowed to ‘queue’ up any players in advance. The reasoning: Amid this brain-rattling torrent of being on the clock multiple times inside 30 seconds … Pressure makes diamonds.
Here are the results from the three simultaneous mocks. For the first-timers attempting this crazy exercise at home, expect an avalanche of under-the-gun choices and permutations after Round 2, with only 45 seconds between each selection:
TEAM A
ROUND 1 — WR Davante Adams, Packers
ROUND 2 — WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
ROUND 3 — WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys
ROUND 4 — RB D’Andre Swift, Lions
ROUND 5 — RB David Montgomery, Bears
ROUND 6 — RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers
ROUND 7 — TE Tyler Higbee, Rams
ROUND 8 — WR Julian Edelman, Patriots
ROUND 9 — QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers
ROUND 10 — WR Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
ROUND 11 — D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers
ROUND 12 — RB Adrian Peterson, Washington Football Team
ROUND 13 — QB Jared Goff, Rams
ROUND 14 — TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
ROUND 15 — PK Harrison Butker, Chiefs
ROUND 16 — RB Anthony McFarland Jr., Steelers
TEAM B
ROUND 1 — WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals
ROUND 2 — WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
ROUND 3 — RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
ROUND 4 — RB James Conner, Steelers
ROUND 5 — RB David Montgomery, Bears
ROUND 6 — RB Raheem Mostert, 49ers
ROUND 7 — WR Will Fuller, Texans
ROUND 8 — QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers
ROUND 9 — WR John Brown, Bills
ROUND 10 — QB Josh Allen, Bills
ROUND 11 — TE Austin Hooper, Browns
ROUND 12 — D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers
ROUND 13 — WR Breshad Perriman, Jets
ROUND 14 — PK Harrison Butker, Chiefs
ROUND 15 — TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
ROUND 16 — RB Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars
TEAM C
ROUND 1 — WR DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals
ROUND 2 — RB Austin Ekeler, Chargers
ROUND 3 — RB Leonard Fournette, Jaguars
ROUND 4 — WR A.J. Brown, Titans
ROUND 5 — WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins
ROUND 6 — RB David Montgomery, Bears
ROUND 7 — WR Sterling Shepard, Giants
ROUND 8 — TE Tyler Higbee, Rams
ROUND 9 — WR John Brown, Bills
ROUND 10 — QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
ROUND 11 — RB Marlon Mack, Colts
ROUND 12 — RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers
ROUND 13 — QB Jared Goff, Rams
ROUND 14 — PK Justin Tucker, Ravens
ROUND 15 — TE Dallas Goedert, Eagles
ROUND 16 — D/ST Los Angeles Chargers
BREAKDOWN
OBSERVATION #1
Panthers tailback Christian McCaffrey (2,392 total yards, 19 TDs last year) was the across-the-board choice at No. 1 overall, which shouldn’t surprise anyone.
In 2019, McCaffrey established a new single-season record for tailbacks (116 catches) and notched 14 different outings of 130 total yards and/or one touchdown.
OBSERVATION #2
In case you’re wondering … Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara were the only other top-3 players selected in the three drafts (mixed orders).
Here’s the mild downside of the above occurrence:
BARKLEY
The Giants’ early gauntlet of foes (citing 2019 defensive stats) include:
STEELERS — 3rd in rushing touchdowns allowed … 3rd in overall TDs surrendered to tailbacks
BEARS — 9th in receiving yards yielded to tailbacks … 9th in receiving TDs given up to the same position
49ERS — 4th in rushing touchdowns allowed … 3rd in overall TDs surrendered … 8th in rushing yards yielded
COWBOYS — 10th in rushing yards surrendered
EAGLES — 4th in rushing yards allowed
BUCS — 1st in rushing yards surrendered … 7th in rushing TDs yielded … 3rd in receiving TDs allowed to tailbacks
KAMARA
The University of Tennessee product incurred a seismic dip in touchdown production last year, plunging from 18 scores in 2018 (with Mark Ingram sharing time in the backfield) to merely six TDs in 2019.
What’s more, without Ingram’s presence last season, Kamara only cleared the elite-level threshold of 100 total yards and/or one touchdown seven times (14 games).
OBSERVATION #3
DeAndre Hopkins (my No. 3 PPR wideout) and Davante Adams (No. 4 receiver) were available at No. 8 overall in all three drafts; and since their rankings are virtually identical, it made sense to diversify this 50-50 coin toss with Hopkins in two drafts … and Adams in the other.
For those who favor Adams, though, here’s something to behold:
To secure the QB-WR handcuff of Hopkins and Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, it’ll probably take a Round 5 or 6 commitment on the back end.
However, for the Adams-Aaron Rodgers handcuff … fantasy GMs can confidently wait until Rounds 9-11 to pull the trigger on Rodgers — likely because the future Hall of Famer hasn’t eclipsed 30 touchdowns since the 2016 season.
That said, you’ll still appreciate the Round 10 value of a guy who’s a healthy shoo-in for 4,000 yards passing and 28 TDs.
OBSERVATION #4
One more thing: In all three mock drafts, Adams — with last year’s 12-game numbers extrapolating to 111 catches, 170 targets, 1,330 yards, 6.7 TDs for 16 outings — ended up as the second wideout off the board (after Michael Thomas).
OBSERVATION #5
Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson (4,333 total yards, 43 TDs last season) was the first quarterback selected in all three mocks; and the range was super-tight, with Jackson being tagged as picks one, two and three in Round 3.
OBSERVATION #6
Chris Godwin finished second overall with the majority of PPR leagues last year (trailing only Thomas), despite ranking 11th in receptions (86), 17th in targets (120), 3rd in receiving yards (1,333) and 3rd in receiving touchdowns (9).
As such, there are two ways to interpret our positional ranking for 2020 (No. 2 receiver):
GOOD: Godwin (three double-digit target outings, six 100-yard games last year) might already be a fantasy superstar … but also has plenty of tangible upside with catches, targets and touchdowns.
MEH: Fantasy owners should never assume 1,300-plus yards and nine touchdowns from any wideout, year to year, especially one who has yet to clear 90 receptions.
Put it all together, and it’ll be fascinating to see how new Bucs quarterback Tom Brady utilizes arguably the NFC’s best collection of playmakers from Day 1 (Evans, Godwin, Ronald Jones, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Justin Watson).
OBSERVATION #7
It’s damn-near impossible to explain the fantasy disrespect coming Raheem Mostert’s way, without the benefit of any preseason games … or even a concrete depth chart from the 49ers coaches (at the time of this writing).
Citing his final nine games last year (including the playoffs), Mostert accounted for 13 total touchdowns … without toting more than 20 carries in a single outing; and during that prolific span, Mostert held sublime averages of 95.4 total yards and 1.4 TDs.
And yet, Mostert can incredibly be yours in Round 6 … pretty much like clockwork. Unreal.
OBSERVATION #8
I haven’t dedicated much editorial space to David Montgomery this offseason; and yet, the Bears tailback was happily snagged in all three mocks.
Why so pleased?
As a rookie, Montgomery (1,074 total yards, 7 TDs) modestly …
****Tallied six outings of 90 total yards and/or one touchdown.
****Posted seven games of three or more receiving targets.
****Averaged 18.5 touches in his final 10 games.
****The Bears (29th in scoring last year) went 5-3 in their final eight outings, suggesting that riding Montgomery played an integral role in Chicago’s second-half resurgence.
OBSERVATION #9
Dallas Goedert (58 catches, 607 yards, 5 TDs last year) might be a TE2 in Philly, but he’s also a standout asset for the latter rounds of all three drafts.
In 2019, Goedert was one of only nine NFL tight ends to collect eight-plus games of seven targets AND notch seven outings of six catches, 80 yards and/or one one touchdown.
Speaking of tight ends …
For Weeks 13-17 last year, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee attracted eight-plus targets five times (four outings of double-digit targets), caught seven-plus balls five times, surpassed 100 yards receiving four times … and scored two touchdowns during this otherworldly span.
OBSERVATION #10
With no preseason games, it’ll be hard to quantify projections with high-profile rookies, such as tailbacks Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jonathan Taylor, along with receivers Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins, Henry Ruggs III, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor and Brandon Aiyuk.
But check this out:
For all three simultaneous mocks, the Chiefs’ Edwards-Helaire (replacing Damien Williams — who opted out of the 2020 campaign) went off the board three times in Round 1 … fifth, seventh and 11th overall.
In other words … good luck at snagging the explosive Edwards-Helaire in the sleeper neighborhood of rookie draftees.
