FANTASY FOOTBALL: A post-camp update of the NFL's top 75 PPR wideouts for 2020

Michael Thomas, Saints
Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
Davante Adams, Packers
DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals
Julio Jones, Falcons
Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
Kenny Golladay, Lions
DJ Moore, Panthers
Allen Robinson, Bears
Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Amari Cooper, Cowboys
A.J. Brown, Titans
Adam Thielen, Vikings
Cooper Kupp, Rams
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers
DeVante Parker, Dolphins
Odell Beckham Jr., Browns
DJ Chark, Jaguars
Courtland Sutton, Broncos
DK Metcalf, Seahawks
Will Fuller, Texans
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
Stefon Diggs, Bills
Calvin Ridley, Falcons
Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
Keenan Allen, Chargers
T.Y. Hilton, Colts
Jarvis Landry, Browns
Sterling Shepard, Giants
Marvin Jones, Lions
Julian Edelman, Patriots
Christian Kirk, Cardinals
Michael Gallup, Cowboys
Robert Woods, Rams
Brandin Cooks, Texans
Marquise Brown, Ravens
Diontae Johnson, Steelers
A.J. Green, Bengals
Deebo Samuel, 49ers
Breshad Perriman, Jets
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
John Brown, Bills
Hunter Renfrow, Raiders
Darius Slayton, Giants
Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
Emmanuel Sanders, Saints
Anthony Miller, Bears
DeSean Jackson, Eagles
N’Keal Harry, Patriots
Curtis Samuel, Panthers
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
Jamison Crowder, Jets
Bryan Edwards, Raiders
Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Robby Anderson, Panthers
Cole Beasley, Bills
Mike Williams, Chargers
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
Jalen Reagor, Eagles
John Ross III, Bengals
Corey Davis, Titans
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Preston Williams, Dolphins
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers
Chris Conley, Jaguars
Golden Tate, Giants
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers
Henry Ruggs III, Raiders
Parris Campbell, Colts
Steven Sims, Washington Football Team
Laviska Shenault, Jaguars
Allen Lazard, Packers

BREAKDOWN

a) You can bet the proverbial farm on Saints wideout Michael Thomas (149 catches, 1,725 yards, 9 TDs) incurring a slight production dip in 2020, citing three firm presumptions:

**Last season, Thomas notched a new NFL single-season record for catches; and for what it’s worth, only Cris Carter (1994-95) and Antonio Brown (2014-15) have posted consecutive seasons of 120-plus receptions.

**It’s difficult to envision Saints tailback Alvin Kamara (three-year average: 1,492 total yards, 12.3 TDs) falling short of 1,400 total yards and/or double-digit touchdowns this year, especially with the University of Tennessee product set to hit unrestricted free agency after the 2020 campaign.

**The Saints’ previous model of having Thomas outperform his wideout teammates by three or four times the targets reeked of absurdity; and that lack of balance contributed to the Saints averaging three points less in 2019 (compared to 2018).

To rectify the situation in 2020, New Orleans went out and signed Emmanuel Sanders for the WR2 role.

b) Chris Godwin finished second overall with the majority of PPR leagues last year (trailing only Thomas), despite ranking 11th in receptions (86), 17th in targets (120), 3rd in receiving yards (1,333) and 3rd in receiving touchdowns (9).

As such, there are two ways to interpret our positional ranking for 2020:

GOOD: Godwin (three double-digit target outings, six 100-yard games last year) might already be a fantasy superstar … but also has plenty of tangible upside with catches, targets and touchdowns.

MEH: Fantasy owners should never assume 1,300-plus yards and nine touchdowns from any wideout, year to year, especially one who has yet to clear 90 receptions.

Put it all together, and it’ll be fascinating to see how new Bucs quarterback Tom Brady utilizes arguably the NFC’s best collection of playmakers from Day 1 (Evans, Godwin, Ronald Jones, Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Justin Watson).

c) We’ll keep this short and sweet with Davante Adams:

**When extrapolating his 2016-18 numbers over three 16-game campaigns, Adams tallied elite-level averages of 87 catches, 136 targets, 1,089 yards and 11.7 touchdowns.

**Adams’ 12-game numbers from last season, when extrapolated to a 16-game slate, shake out to 111 catches, 170 targets, 1,330 yards and 6.7 TDs.

d) Julio Jones (turned 31 in February) feels like a no-brainer pick for the top five, after posting six consecutive seasons of 1,300-plus yards.

In fact, let’s take a stab at prognosticating Julio’s precise statistics for 2020 — assuming full health:

First, let’s throw out Jones’ gold-standard season of (136 catches, 1,871 yards, 8 TDs) … and his, uh, worst, campaign of the last six years — 2017 (84 catches, 1,444 yards, 3 TDs).

The averages of the other four seasons (2014, 2016, 2018-19) come out to: 100 catches, 155 targets, 1,518 yards and seven scores for this season. BOOM!

e) Remember when noted ESPN blowhard Rex Ryan inadvertently referred to Amari Cooper as a ‘turd’ back in March?

It was obviously a poor choice of words on Ryan’s part, an indefensible cheap shot on national TV. But moving past the needless insult, did Ryan have a point in criticizing Cooper’s home/road splits with the Cowboys?

Check this out:

**For his 12 regular-season road outings (2018-19), Cooper owns painful averages of 3.8 catches, 7.1 targets, 41.2 yards and 0.3 TDs.

**For his 13 regular-season home games (2018-19), Cooper boasts stellar averages of 6.7 catches, 8.5 targets, 109 yards and 0.9 TDs.

What’s the verdict? Cooper might become the first top-10 wideout in fantasy history … to be mired in a home/away platoon with a third-tier receiver.

f) The Odell Beckham Jr. we knew from 2014-16 — boasting Hall of Fame-like averages of 96 catches, 1,374 yards, 12 TDs — probably doesn’t exist anymore … in totality.

Chalk it up to injuries (16 games missed since 2017), ego, complacency (middling catch-to-target rate of 55 percent last season), general unhappiness, unwanted change of scenery or simply getting older (four catches/11 red-zone targets last year).

Whatever the reasons, isolated or cumulative, the days of rubber-stamping 90 catches, 1,300 yards or even double-digit touchdowns have likely passed.

The lesson here: Stop taking OBJ high in Round 2 of PPR drafts!

You’ll be much happier with Beckham’s standing as a Round 5 or 6 selection.

And finally …

g) Here’s a cool stats to celebrate with your fantasy friends … and conceal from your rivals of this wonderfully addictive game:

In 2019, only three NFL wideouts racked up double-digit numbers with ‘games of eight-plus targets‘ AND ‘outings with seven catches, 95 yards and/or one touchdown‘ — Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins … and emerging Panthers star DJ Moore (87 catches, 135 targets, 1,175 yards, 4 TDs).

POSITIONAL RANKINGS

THE ANNUAL PPR SPECTACULAR

MISCELLANEOUS ITEMS

BREAKDOWN