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PIGSKIN PERFECTION: The ‘You Are Looking Live!’ preview for NFL Week 10

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Bucs-Panthers, Packers-Jaguars, Bengals-Steelers, Saints-49ers, Seahawks-Rams and Chargers-Dolphins highlight an interesting slate for NFL Week 10.

Four years ago, we began honoring radio legend Steve Czaban — who was surprisingly booted from the SB Nation Radio morning lineup in 2016, despite having perhaps the most engaging program in the radio marketplace — with a “You Are Looking Live!” preview of each NFL weekend.

The bit was so well-received, so roundly praised by media pundits (including a few SB Nation writers) and Czabe’s legion of fans alike, that we decided to make You Are Looking Live! a permanent Friday staple of the BATSBY Sports Network programming.

So, without further ado, here’s a print doppelganger to the best 60 minutes in sports radio — Hour #3 of Czabe’s NFL-heavy Friday show (heard daily from 3-7 p.m. in Washington D.C).

As such, it makes perfect sense to include Brent Musburger and Joey Porter into the presentation, via YouTube:

WEEK 10

SUNDAY

JACKSONVILLE (1-7) @ GREEN BAY (6-2)

TIME: 1 p.m. EST
LINE: Packers (-13 1/2) … Over/Under: 49
REFEREE: Shawn Smith
TV CREW: Chris Myers, Brock Huard, Greg Jennings, Jen Hale (FOX)

LAMBEAU’S FAVORITE SON: Packers QB Aaron Rodgers should be in line for premium numbers against the Jaguars, who own bottom-10 tallies with passing yards and passing touchdowns surrendered.

For starters, Rodgers has notched three-plus touchdowns in seven of his last nine games.

What’s more, charting his last seven home outings versus AFC opponents, Rodgers holds stellar averages of 283 yards passing and 2.6 touchdowns.

TAMPA BAY (6-3) @ CAROLINA (3-6)

TIME: 1 p.m.
LINE: Panthers (+6) … Over/Under: 50.5
REFEREE: Land Clark
TV ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Burkhardt, Darryl Johnston, Pam Oliver (FOX)

REALITY CHECK: There’s no recent evidence suggesting Tom Brady (209 yards passing, three INTs vs. New Orleans) will automatically bounce back from last week’s clunker, in terms of posting dominant numbers on Sunday.

Citing his last five games of zero touchdown passes, dating back to 2017, Brady’s follow-up starts yielded middling averages of 250 yards passing and 1.3 TDs.

HOUSTON (2-6) @ CLEVELAND (5-3)

TIME: 1 p.m.
LINE: Browns (-3 1/2) … Over/Under: 47.5
REFEREE: Ron Torbert
TV ANNOUNCERS: Dick Stockton, Matt Millen, Sara Walsh (FOX)

FANTASY FIX: Browns tailback Nick Chubb (missed four games from Weeks 5-8) picked the ideal time to return from a knee injury, drawing a Texans defense which ranks 31st in rushing touchdowns allowed and dead-last in rushing yards surrendered.

Here’s another thing to celebrate: Charting his last nine home games, Chubb crossed the elite-level threshold of 100 total yards and/or one touchdown seven times.

WEEK 10 PREP WORK

PASSING FANCY: Murray, Rodgers, Jackson headline the QB rankings
RUSH TO GLORY: Aaron Jones, Cook, Kamara carry the top PPR backs
TARGET PRACTICE: Adams, Robinson, Woods lead top 60 PPR wideouts
BIG & BAD: Waller, Ebron, Engram highlight the top 30 PPR tight ends

PIGSKIN PERFECTION: ‘You Are Looking Live!’ preview of NFL Week 10

PHILADELPHIA (3-4-1) @ N.Y. GIANS (2-7)

TIME: 1 p.m. EST
LINE: Giants (+3 1/2) … Over/Under: 44.5
REFEREE: Clay Martin
TV ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Kugler, Chris Spielman, Laura Okmin (FOX)

FUN FACTOID: We’re big fan of the over (44.5 points) for Sunday’s clash, citing two telltale reasons:

a) Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has recorded multiple touchdowns in six straight outings, including his 359-yard, three-TD effort against the Giants three weeks ago.

b) Charting the last eight Eagles-Giants games played at The Meadowlands, the clubs combined for robust averages of 55.4 points.

WASHINGTON (2-6) @ DETROIT (3-5)

TIME: 1 p.m.
LINE: Lions (-3 1/2) … Over/Under: 46.5
REFEREE: Alex Kemp
TV ANNOUNCERS: Brandon Gaudin, Aqib Talib, Megan Olivi (FOX)

COUNT YOUR McBLESSINGS: The spirit of Austin Ekeler (sidelined by a hamstring injury) lives strong in Washington tailback J.D. McKissic, who has collected 30 catches and 38 targets in his last five outings.

The only downside to this terrific PPR production: McKissic has yet to find the end zone this season, either as a rusher or receiver.

Help might be on the way, though, in the form of McKissic’s old club: The Lions have surrendered the most receiving touchdowns to opposing backs (5); and overall, Detroit has allowed 15 total TDs to tailback opponents.

BUFFALO (7-2) @ ARIZONA (5-3)

TIME: 4:05 p.m. EST
LINE: Cardinals (-2 1/2) … Over/Under: 56.5
REFEREE: Craig Wrolstad
TV ANNOUNCERS: Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn (CBS)

JUST DESSERTS … IN THE DESERT: Not that you needed another reason to start Bills quarterback Josh Allen this week, coming off a 415-yard, four-touchdown explosion against the Seahawks.

But here goes:

a) Citing his three regular-season outings played indoors, Allen owns strong career averages of 230 yards passing and 2.3 TDs.

b) This season, opposing quarterbacks have enjoyed a completion rate of 64 percent against the Cardinals.

c) Arizona has given up 34 points in each of its last two games. Within this period, opposing quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Tua Tagovailoa posted top-notch averages of 378 total yards and 2.5 touchdowns.

DENVER (3-5) @ LAS VEGAS (5-3)

TIME: 4:05 p.m.
LINE: Raiders (-4) … Over/Under: 50.5
REFEREE: Tony Corrente
TV ANNOUNCERS: Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins (CBS)

FANTASY NUGGET: Is it possible the Broncos have finally found a franchise quarterback during the John Elway regime?

(And no, signing Peyton Manning during the peak of his Hall of Fame career doesn’t really count.)

In his last three games, second-year starter Drew Lock holds robust averages of 25 completions, 272 yards passing and 2.3 touchdowns; and of equal importance, Lock’s in the midst of establishing a long-lasting rapport with receiver Jerry Jeudy (a future All-Pro, in my mind0, who has collected double-digit targets in back-to-back outings.

L.A. CHARGERS (2-6) @ MIAMI (5-3)

TIME: 4:05 p.m.
LINE: Dolphins (-1 1/2) … Over/Under: 48.5
REFEREE: Jerome Boger
TV ANNOUNCERS: Greg Gumbel, Rich Gannon, A.J. Ross (CBS)

BETTOR’S GUARANTEE: Let’s see, the last five Chargers games have produced a combined average of 62.4 points … and we’re supposed to be ambivalent about this week’s over-under tally of 48.5 points?

Especially when the Dolphins defense has recorded touchdowns in back-to-back outings?

Call us crazy, but this might be the safest prediction of the weekend. Both rookie quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailioa) are playing exceptionally well, and logic dictates that Miami won’t hesitate to throw a ton, in the event of a sizable early deficit.

In other words, like our guy Steve Czaban often says, Go ahead and bet on this game … as if it’s already been played.

SAN FRANCISCO (4-5) @ NEW ORLEANS (6-2)

TIME: 4:25 p.m. EST
LINE: Saints (-10) … Over/Under: 49
REFEREE: Brad Rogers
TV ANALYSTS: Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth, Lindsay Czarniak (FOX)

PRELUDE TO A BOUNCE-BACK: Saints tailback Alvin Kamara (1,036 total yards, 8 TDs in 2020) has reached the elite-level threshold of 100 total yards and/or one touchdown in 10 straight regular-season outings, dating back to last year.

Here’s another thing to cherist: Counting his last five meetings with NFC West opponents, Kamara boasts supreme averages of 114 total yards and 1.4 touchdowns.

But ay the rub: Remember last December’s 48-46 classic between the Niners and Saints? (Think George Kittle’s monstrous run down the sidelines, while carrying six defenders on his back.)

For that Game Of The Year candidate, there were 94 total points … but Kamara ended up with merely 43 yards and zero scores.

CINCINNATI (2-5-1) @ PITTSBURGH (8-0)

TIME: 4:25 p.m.
LINE: Steelers (-7 1/2) … Over/Under: 47.5
REFEREE: Adrian Hill
TV ANALYSTS: Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilman, Shannon Spake (FOX)

STAT OF THE MONTH: Charting his last nine home games during the month of November, dating back to 2014, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger boasts staggering averages of 348 yards passing and 3.3 touchdowns.

SEATTLE (6-2) @ L.A. RAMS (5-3)

TIME: 4:25 p.m.
LINE: Rams (-2) … Over/Under: 54.5
REFEREE: Clete Blakeman

TV ANNOUNCERS: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews (FOX)
BETTOR’S HUNCH: The number-crunching experts of OddsShark.com might want to aim a little higher with the over-under tally of 54.5 points.

At this point, it looks like a sure thing in the OVER department.

Here’s why:

a) Seattle has the NFL’s worst passing defense … by a country mile.

b) Through eight games, the Seahawks and their weekly opponent are averaging 64.6 combined points per game.

c) Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who attempted 61 passes last week, has accounted for 300 yards passing and/or multiple touchdowns in his last five meetings with Seattle.

d) Five different wideouts (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds) should be considered as reasonable locks for 100 yards receiving and/or one touchdown.

BALTIMORE (6-2) @ NEW ENGLAND (3-5)

TIME: 8:20 p.m. EST
LINE: Patriots (+7) … Over/Under: 43.5
REFEREE: Shawn Hochuli

TV CREW: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michelle Tafoya (NBC)
BETTING RATIONALE: Here’s a good explanation for the Patriots being 7-point home underdogs, something that almost never occurs on Bill Belichick’s watch:

a) Last year, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson shredded New England for 224 total yards and three touchdowns.

b) Opposing tailbacks are averaging 4.7 yards per carry against the Patriots.

c) Of their four road games to date, the Ravens have either scored 30 points or enjoyed a final spread of at least two touchdowns.

MONDAY

MINNESOTA (3-5) @ CHICAGO (5-4)

TIME: 8:15 p.m.
LINE: Bears (+2 1/2) … Over/Under: 43
REFEREE: Scott Novak
TV CREW: Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters (ESPN)

HAVE COOK, WILL TRAVEL … IN TRADE TALKS: This might be the perfect week to trade Vikings tailback Dalvin Cook (seven straight games of 100 total yards and/or one TD), if you’re looking to swing a blockbuster trade for the top-rated asset in fantasy football.

Why trade him now?

a) With PPR leagues, Cook has absurdly averaged 32.4 points over his last five games; and that includes missing nearly the entire second half against the Seahawks. Realistically speaking, this five-week run will likely represent his peak-peak for the season.

b) Looking ahead, Cook’s only a lock for monster numbers during Weeks 11-13 (vs. Dallas, vs. Carolina, vs. Jacksonville). For the playoff period of Weeks 14-16, the clashes with the Bucs, Bears and Saints should be less fruitful.

c) Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has produced three efforts of three touchdown passes in his last six games.

d) Given Cook’s amazing numbers, fantasy owners have a genuine window for getting three stars back in a major 3-for-1 swap, fortifying the tailback, wideout and tight end slots for the playoffs.

About The Managing Editor

Jay Clemons remains the only sports writer on the planet to capture Cynposis Media’s national award for Sports Blog Of The Year (beating out NBA.com, MLB.com, PGATour.com, The Players’ Tribune in 2015), along with the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s pre-eminent award for Best Writer (2008). Through the years, Mr. Clemons has been a key figure with numerous blue-chip sports/media brands, namely the Detroit Lions, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report and the NBC/Universal family. With Sports Illustrated (2006-11), Clemons served a triple role with SI.com‘s heralded football coverage—editing Peter King’s famed ‘Monday Morning Quarterback’ column, penning award-winning pieces for NFL and then writing/narrating scripted videos within the NFL and baseball realms. In 2013, Clemons’ first year with the company, FOX Sports South enjoyed a monumental increase of approximately 34 million Web hits in a 12-month cycle—merely posting 11 million hits the previous year. 

Then, over a two-month span in 2014, FOX Sports South amassed 19.5 million Web hits—a 60-day record for any FOX affiliate. And in 2015, Clemons claimed the aforementioned Cynopsis Media award on FOX Sports’ behalf, the company’s only national writing award during that period. Clemons, a graduate of Michigan State University  and Wayne State University, has been an on-camera Web-TV host for Sports Illustrated, Bleacher Report and FOX Sports. In 2015, he also became the first-ever sports journalism professor at Kennesaw State University in suburban Atlanta.

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