BATSBY Sports relied on OddsShark.com for its money-line selections during the NFL regular season; and given our 60-percent success rate with gambling lines and over-unders, it only makes sense to revisit Odds Shark for Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
As such, here are the 10 most intriguing prop bets for Sunday’s even-handed clash of Chiefs vs. 49ers, along with our breakdowns and predictions for each cherry-picked prop:
PROP BET #1 — PATRICK MAHOMES … 305.5 YARDS PASSING
a) Charting his last five games (including the playoffs), Mahomes has averaged 276 yards and three total touchdowns.
b) Mahomes had failed to hit 300 yards passing in four of his last five games away from Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium.
c) In September 2018, Mahomes lit up the Niners defense for 314 yards passing and three touchdowns — his first-ever home start in the pros.
To hit that number, though, it required nearly 64-percent passing.
d) During the regular season, only two opposing quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Jared Goff) eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark vs. San Francisco.
PREDICTION: Mahomes carries the ‘over’ on a gut call … but just barely.
PROP BET #2 — JIMMY GAROPPOLO … 1.5 TOUCHDOWN PASSES
a) During the regular season, the Chiefs finished middle-of-the-pack with touchdown passes allowed.
With opposing tailbacks, Kansas City also owned a middle-of-the-road ranking with rushing TDs surrendered.
b) Garoppolo has passed for multiple touchdowns just once in his last seven starts (including the postseason).
c) Charting his last 26 starts (Patriots, Niners), Garoppolo has posted zero touchdowns in back-to-back outings on one occasion.
PREDICTION: UNDER
PROP BET #3 — EMMANUEL SANDERS … 44.5 RECEIVING YARDS
a) Sanders has been a boom-or-bust asset since joining the Niners midseason:
**Against the Cardinals and Saints, Sanders absurdly averaged seven catches, nine targets, 135 yards and one score.
**For the other nine complete games, Sanders broke 60 yards receiving just once and registered only two TDs.
b) For that same stretch, Sanders merely averaged 4.5 targets per outing.
PREDICTION: UNDER
PROP BET #4 — DAMIEN WILLIAMS … 3.5 RECEPTIONS
a) With fantasy football, the Chiefs’ tailback has been a great PPR asset in recent weeks, averaging four catches, 5.5 targets and 0.5 touchdowns over his last four outings.
b) For the last three weeks alone, Williams collected 19 targets.
c) On the flip side … during the regular season, the vaunted and versatile Niners defense ranked 4th in targets allowed to opposing backs.
PREDICTION: UNDER
PROP BET #5 — GEORGE KITTLE … 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS
a) Kittle hasn’t been much of a factor during the playoffs (two games), collecting only four catches for 19 yards.
b) For the regular season, the shaky Chiefs endured a bottom-five ranking versus tight ends, covering the categories of catches, targets and receiving yards allowed.
However, in its last five outings (including the postseason), Kansas City has surrendered mere averages of five catches, 31 yards and 0.4 TDs to the other team’s No. 1 tight end.
c) Charting his last six games away from Arrowhead Stadium, Kittle averaged 5.3 catches, 65 yards and 0.3 touchdowns.
On the major-plus side, the Iowa product enjoyed a robust catch-to-target rate of 80 percent for these same outings.
d) Last year (September 2018), Kittle caught five balls for 79 yards against the Chiefs; and keep in mind, Jimmy Garoppolo incurred a season-ending knee injury in the same game.
PREDICTION: UNDER … by a smidge.
PROP BET #6 — RAHEEM MOSTERT … 79.5 SCRIMMAGE YARDS
a) Forget about Mostert’s 226-yard, four-TD demolition of the overmatched Packers in the NFC championship bout.
For his previous seven games, the lightning-fast Mostert stealthily averaged 82 total yards and 1.1 touchdowns.
b) On the down side, Mostert has yet to collect more than two targets in his last seven outings.
c) For regular season action, the Chiefs had a bottom-10 ranking with rushing yards allowed to opposing backs.
What’s more, Kansas City rated dead-last with targets surrendered to the same position.
d) Even if Tevin Coleman (injured shoulder) suits up on Super Sunday, Mostert remains a solid bet for 14-18 total touches against the Chiefs.
PREDICTION: OVER
PROP BET #7 — WILL THE NINERS POST A RUSHING TD?
YES -370
NO +260
PREDICTION: Bet the proverbial farm on … YES!!!!
PROP BET #8 — TOTAL PUNTS … 7.5
a) For away or neutral-field games this year, Mitch Wishnowsky (49ers) and Dustin Colquitt (Chiefs) collectively averaged 5.9 punts per game.
b) Throw in the likelihood of the Chiefs being bold on certain 4th-and-short situations … and we’re feeling great about this prop.
PREDICTION: UNDER
PROP BET #9 — TRAVIS KELCE … LONGEST CATCH OF 21.5 YARDS?
Forget the data extractions … we’re simply counting down the seconds until Sunday’s titanic matchup of tight ends. Playing a hunch here.
PREDICTION: OVER
PROP BET #10 — NINERS SACKS … 4.5
a) According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked 28th overall with pass protection during the regular season.
b) Four Niners defenders registered at least 6 1/2 sacks this year — Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford.
c) Mahomes has the requisite mobility to avoid a large sackfest on Sunday.
The only worry here: If the score gets out of hand early … the 49ers’ front line can exclusively focus on attacking a pass-happy Mahomes with nearly every snap.
PREDICTION: UNDER